The U.S. job market shrank massively in June, July, and August. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite set another record.
The two events ran side by side, completely disconnected. But Wall Street isn’t confused. It’s reacting to a new reality: weak employment means stronger bets on AI.
The Nasdaq surged by 0.45% to a new all-time high, led by Nvidia, Robinhood, and Broadcom. All three companies are deep in the artificial intelligence space and have become investor favorites.
The S&P 500 was up 0.21%, while the Dow Jones added 114.09 points, or 0.25%. These gains came despite the fact that job growth is now considered negative, especially after Salesforce said last week it cut 4,000 roles due to AI.
Klarna also confirmed back in May that it reduced its workforce by 40% thanks to automation tools.
Investors move toward AI while ignoring labor signs
Instead of selling off on poor labor news, investors bought more shares of companies using AI to cut costs. Salesforce and Klarna aren’t alone. Tech firms are shedding workers and replacing them with systems that never call in sick.
For investors, that’s enough. If fewer jobs mean better profit margins, the market treats that as a win.
At the same time, Wall Street is watching for signs of how the Federal Reserve will react. Weaker labor data usually increases the chance of a rate cut. But inflation might get in the way. On Thursday, the consumer price index will drop. The market expects a rise from 2.7% to 2.9%.
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, told CNBC:
“When the labor market is weakening, the Fed is supposed to cut rates. The problem is that for Thursday’s CPI number, the consensus is now expecting inflation to go up from 2.7% to 2.9% … and that is exactly muddying the picture, because when inflation goes up, the Fed should be hiking.”
This is why traders aren’t going all in just yet. On Monday night, futures held steady. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 57 points, or 0.13%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.12%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.11%. Mild changes, but no signs of panic, even after the job data landed.
The National Federation of Independent Business is releasing its Small Business Optimism Index before Tuesday’s market open. If sentiment is down, that could signal more layoffs coming.
Small businesses employ a massive portion of the American workforce, and any dip in hiring confidence could worsen the trend already visible in June’s losses.
Investors are also watching upcoming earnings. GameStop and Oracle will report Tuesday after the closing bell. Apple is expected to reveal its new iPhone lineup this week, which could shake up the tech trade even more.
But while consumer companies brace for slower spending, the AI arms race is pulling in huge capital.
Late Monday, Nebius Group signed a $17.4 billion deal to supply Microsoft with GPU infrastructure over five years, sending its shares up more than 47% after hours.
The contract could climb to $19.4 billion if Microsoft adds services, underscoring how demand for AI compute is exploding even as traditional labor metrics point down.
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